October 5 - We have preliminary affidavit counts for Maricopa County in September and they show the following:
Re-sales totaled 9,589 which is up 8% from September 2020.
New sales came in at 1,668 which is DOWN 7% from September 2020. The poor showing from new homes is due to the inability to build fast enough rather than a lack of demand. Supply chain problems and chronic labor shortages are limiting the developer's ability to capitalize on the market strength.
The re-sale median was $415,000 up 26% from September 2020.
The new home median was $412,686, up only 11%.
The fact that developer prices are usually fixed at contract signing is limiting their ability to sell at market price.
We are seeing many examples of brand new homes being re-sold at much higher prices shortly after their initial purchase.
The number of homes purchased last month to be used as rental properties by investors in Maricopa County is up 77% from September 2020.
Homes purchased by owner occupiers as their first or second home are down 4% over the same time frame.
The nature of demand has changed dramatically over the past 12 months.
New listings have been arriving at a slower pace, although the iBuyers have amassed a large inventory which could come to market over a short period of time.
Demand is looking strong and continues to head higher. However a large part of that demand is coming from investors and iBuyers rather than traditional home buyers.
Developers are finding it tough to increase supply, with major problems in the supply chains for building materials and ongoing labor shortages. We are not expecting a huge up-tick in supply from new homes in the near term.
We remain in a market heavily tilted in the seller's favor.